Saturday, August 21, 2021

Are we in the Capitulation phase

for China tech bear market?

No doubt that China tech stocks are in bear market. Using KWEB ETF as reference, its price has dropped about 60% from its peak. The stock price of big China tech stocks such as Alibaba and Tencent, etc. have collapsed about 16% and 12% respectively for the past 1 week with high volume. The price movement looks similar to the Capitulation phase as describe below:

From https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitulation.asp

Capitulation is when investors give up any previous gains in any security or market by selling their positions during periods of declines. Capitulation can happen at any time, but typically happens during high volume trading and extended declines for securities. A market correction or bear market often leads investors to capitulate or panic sell. The term is a derived from a military term which refers to surrender.

From https://www.dsij.in/DSIJArticleDetail/ArtMID/10163/ArticleID/12212/Market-cycles-and-emotions

Stage 3: Panic, capitulation & despondency

In the third stage, people start seeing the realities of a bear market and they may panic and to stop further losses, they in fact, move out of the market altogether. Those who still hold on to be in the market, become despondent and wonder if the markets would ever recover or whether they should stay in the market at all. The irony of the market is that, at these times, investor fails to recognise as currently, they are at the point of a maximum financial opportunity.

Even if we are currently in Capitulation phase, there is no way to tell how long it would last. However, as an investor, we would need to be able to hold through this rainy season.

Divested some Capitaland @ $4.01.
Bought SembCorp @ $1.94.
Added SGX @ $10.67.
Added ST Engineering @ $3.95.
Added 9988 @ HK$167.
Added Palantir @ US$24 (via options).

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